Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. 2020 Election (1210) How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Trump gave them hope. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). It almost became religious.". (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Website Updates Paused Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Have information that relates to fraud in this election? In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Just how big is it? Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. "They followed through the whole four years. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Subscribe to breaking updates If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. It is easy to gloss over this. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. University of Denver, 2. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Telegram Telegram There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). 3. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. But it's still indicative of widespread support. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Go on, look them up! Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Watauga has gone for. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Really stop reading. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. These counties could play an . [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. 2. Until this year. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. 2016 Election (1135) That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Their emotions and decision making process are real. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Their hopes are real. All rights reserved. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Read about our approach to external linking. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. 03:30. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. 5. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. 2023 BBC. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.".