In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. Thanks! Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy 240 views FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. File Upload. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are thriving is a good or bad use of polling. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. 11:03 AM. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. This is the second episode. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. Happy holidays! Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . Saturday, February 25, 2023. Listen at itun.es/i67M5bV. 01:00 PM. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. All rights reserved. Most recently, he ran and hosted 30 for 30 Podcasts, part of ESPN Films. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. 450 episodes. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. Happy holidays! Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The board of directors voted Friday to accept the resignation of David Held, effective June 1, and will then offer him the same job on . The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Bidens first real State of the Union speech. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. In this show, Jody Avirgan, Nicole Hemmer and Kellie Carter Jackson (and guests) take one moment, big or small, from that day in U.S. political history and explore how it might inform our present -- all in about fifteen minutes. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. Galen speaks with him. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. The data behind that evolution is striking. It's easy. Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. Today those numbers have flipped. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. The Negro League Stars That MLB Kept Out And Is Finally Recognizing. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast In Part 2 of this podcast, the crew asks why House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declined to call Rep. George Santos to resign and considers a poll showing that 60% of his district's voters want him to. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. gold rush supreme second chance winners. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. Good Contents Are Everywhere, But Here, We Deliver The Best of The Best.Please Hold on! People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. The podcast crew discusses what Rep. Liz Cheney might do next with her message and what an independent bid for president might entail. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. Thats Changing. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. Five Thirty-Eight sometimes referred to as 538, focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. RSS Loading. COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known. Local news is disappearing across the country. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Feb. 21, 2023 Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine Feb. 16, 2023 Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis By Galen. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. It's a busy week! In the main event, former light They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government,American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. 04:58 PM. The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022: 10/17/22 The team debates if Americans. The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. Join. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Rev. You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. The crew discusses why Bidens favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. The Sporkful production team includes Dan Pashman, Emma Morgenstern, Andres O'Hara, Tracey Samuelson, and Jared O'Connell. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. By May 21, 2021 0 . House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a signing ceremony for H.R. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.".