Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. . Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Our roads need to be fixed. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Its just not that great, Paul said. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Its crazy. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. And it can happen.. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Right now, its horrible. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Im not even sure what direction were going.. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Your email address will not be published. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Two states have announced recounts. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. I quit voting once out of the union.. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. We have become so divided. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. 2016 Trump. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Im not happy with either party. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. This claim is basically absurd. This includes personalizing content and advertising. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. He isnt so sure about Biden. Republican Gov. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. I am under that impression. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. That is, until this year. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. And its never going to come back.. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! You have to take the lesser of two evils. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Theres too much mishandling, she said. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). . I think all politicians are crooks. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. 'I Should Start Voting'. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Theres too much corruption. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. I got a life. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Port Clinton, Ohio. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. They run the gamut from. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. I think its very political right now, honestly. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. I think we needed somebody like him..